Bell Curves, Home Showings, and the Odds of Getting an Offer: Why Home Sellers Shouldn’t Get Too Excited About a 1st Showing

Law of Diminishing Returns Past Three or More Showings

Want to handicap the odds of any given Buyer purchasing a home, especially at higher price points that fewer Buyers can reach?

Think of a Bell Curve, with the peak corresponding to 2-3 showings (call it “2.5”); the left tail represents one showing, and the right tail indicates four or more showings.

In other words . . . the chances of a prospective Buyer making an offer after only one showing are relatively low (empirically, I estimate the odds are no better than 10%).

They increase dramatically once the Buyer returns for second showing, to 33% or even 50%.

Bigger Homes and/or More Work = More Showings

Of course, if the home is bigger and/or needs substantial remodeling, a third showing — often with a contractor — may be appropriate before deciding to write an offer.

However, once someone returns a fourth, fifth, or even sixth(!) time, the odds plummet.

Either the Buyer is too ambivalent about the specific home to make an offer, or, they’re too indecisive/unmotivated generally to pull the trigger on anything.

P.S.  Which is why a proactive listing agent needs to engage with the Buyer’s agent, early in the process, to find out exactly what’s going on.

See also, “Right Number of Showings“; “The Best Kind of Showing Feedback”; “The Positive Uses of Buyer Feedback“; “Buyer Feedback: ’Win, Place, or Show”; “Customized’ Buyer Feedback Forms“; and ”Complete Showing Feedback Form, Get Miles??”

And also: “Knowing When to Flush Negative Feedback”; “Showing Feedback: Outlier or Mainstream?“; and “The ‘My-Client-Didn’t-Like-It-Stop-Bugging-Me’ Showing Feedback.”



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