Harbingers of a Snowy Winter: Multiple Choice

Fat Squirrels and Furry Caterpillars

Which of the following reliably predict an especially snowy winter:

A. Fat squirrels.
B. Chubby caterpillars.
C. The Farmer’s Almanac.
D. Switching your snow service from a flat monthly rate to a “per time” fee.

Answer:  all but “C.”

Lagging Indicator

There actually may be some (pseudo)science behind “D.”

Namely, weather patterns regress towards the mean.

Last winter, area homeowners who signed up for monthly snow service paid more than “per-time” customers when Twin Cities snowfall turned out to be below average.

Homeowners who “learned” that paying per time is cheaper — and switched for this season — are therefore correlated with a mean-reverting likelihood of above average snowfall the following year.

Got all that??



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