Harbingers of a Snowy Winter: Multiple Choice

Fat Squirrels and Furry Caterpillars

Which of the following reliably predict an especially snowy winter:

A. Fat squirrels.
B. Chubby caterpillars.
C. The Farmer’s Almanac.
D. Switching your snow service from a flat monthly rate to a “per time” fee.

Answer:  all but “C.”

Lagging Indicator

There actually may be some (pseudo)science behind “D.”

Namely, weather patterns regress towards the mean.

Last winter, area homeowners who signed up for monthly snow service paid more — relative to “per-time” customers — when Twin Cities snowfall turned out to be below average.

Homeowners who “learned” to pay per time are therefore correlated with a mean-reverting likelihood of above average snowfall the following year.



from RSSMix.com Mix ID 8230700 http://ift.tt/2AFpQzW
via IFTTT

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

“What’s the Highest Point in Hennepin County?”

Image
There sure seems to be some confusion on that, umm . . . point. I’ve now encountered at least three different properties — none close to one another — that all claimed that status in just the last month. For the record, according to Hennepin County’s website, it’s on Williston Road near High Point Road in Minnetonka — 1,131 feet above sea level. See also , “ Florida’s Tallest Point (and how to get there) .” from RSSMix.com Mix ID 8230700 https://ift.tt/2Pq1ndL via IFTTT
Read more

Estimating the Discount for a Busy Street (or Not)

Image
The Art of Comp Selection One of the trickier home features to account for in a Comparative Market Analysis (“CMA”) is a busy street. For a family with little kids, a busy street may very well be a deal breaker — in which case the discount is theoretically infinite. At the other extreme, an investor looking for a rental property may see the location as a plus: free advertising! Of course, not all busy streets are created equal: depending on how far the home is set back; elevation differences; the individual home’s layout; and even landscaping and other topography, and the noise level/loss of privacy can vary significantly. Two Strategies Faced with so many variables, Realtors and Appraisers can always simply choose an average discount — say , 10% off. Strategy #2? Choose as Comp’s (Comparable Sold Properties) only homes that are also located on busy streets. Even better: the same busy street. Then, there’s no need to make any adjustment, because all the home...
Read more

“Are You a Realtor?” “Why, Yes I Am!”

Image
“There Goes My Realtor!” Admittedly, the intended effect is for clients who see me in and around the neighborhood where I live (by Cedar Lake in Minneapolis) to see my car on the road and say, “There Goes My Realtor!” But, my custom license plate (above) is also a conversation-starter when I’m parked. Like today, in Linden Hills, where a builder who has an upcoming listing saw my car and asked if I was a Realtor. I know what to do from there . . .  from RSSMix.com Mix ID 8230700 http://ift.tt/2glixp5 via IFTTT
Read more